You Can’t Make This Up

Between the very name of “Information Dominance” and THIS little gem, I really think the folks over at N2/N6 need to rethink their marketing strategy…

The new Information Dominance (N2/N6) organization based in the Pentagon is supposed to “deliver deep multi-intelligence penetration”

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3 Responses to You Can’t Make This Up

  1. Matt says:

    And this is why you are good for your new assignment.

  2. Vinoth says:

    Jun09 I think we are understanding each other. Perhaps I slohud have used a different word than confident because I didn’t literally mean statistical confidence intervals , which is essentially what you’re talking about. Variance. Yes, it exists. But expectation does NOT change. When I originally asked if you’d bet Mess vs. NoHeart in the playoffs, I was essentially asking you to handicap it.If you think Mess’ 50-50 no-edge goes to a 52-48 edge, or 60-40, or whatever, that’s what I’m asking, and that number does not change no matter how many games they play. Yes as a simple binomial outcome of ahead or behind , the favorite is more likely to be ahead as the number of trials go up. But I thought that was understood. Bet and handicap are synonymous to me. If it’s a good bet, you make it. Yes the AMOUNT you bet, as a percentage of your total bankroll, is dictated by the host of Stats 101 formulae we’ve already alluded to. But I wasn’t implying that you’d be burned at the stake if NoHeart outperformed Mess after one playoff game, I was just trying to get an idea of how much you really think Mark Messier was capable of playing better in clutch situations than a player of exactly equal skill level, and if you felt the data you’ve looked at accurately supports that.From your last few posts, it sounds like you do really believe in clutch. I don’t NOT believe in it. I recognize that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. I just think no one has really sufficiently shown it to exist, and imo neither did you with the Mark Messier article.Btw, I’ve been thinking recently that putting in golf would be a decent starting point for the clutch debate. I’m talking about putts by distance and situation (i.e. more meaningful points in the tournament, for the win, etc) on the PGA tour. It seems like we could get a decent sample, and it’s the type of thing that would have minimal outside influence (i.e. no teammates, etc) and also a pretty clear-cut outcome range ( putt made or putt missed ).

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